Current industry status:
2. The secretary general of the China construction machinery industry association revealed that the 12th five-year plan for the construction machinery industry has been submitted to relevant national authorities and will be released in July.We believe that the release of the industry's "12th five-year plan" will set the direction for the development of construction machinery in the next five years and help to strengthen market confidence in the long-term growth space of construction machinery.
1) the industry as a whole will still achieve stable growth: by the end of the 12th five-year plan period, the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry is expected to reach 900 billion yuan in 2015, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, of which the industry's exports will reach 26 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 20%.This is despite a significant slowdown during the 12th five-year plan period, compared with the 21.3% and 28.1% growth rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010.However, we believe that after the peak growth of the past decade, there is widespread concern that the construction machinery market is saturated and unable to achieve growth.
2) the growth performance of each product will reflect a large difference: from the 12 products counted by the industry association, the tower crane and concrete machinery represented by concrete pump trucks and concrete mixer trucks are expected to achieve an average annual compound growth rate of more than 15% in the next five years, benefiting from the increase in popularity.Wheel cranes, crawler cranes, graders and pavers are expected to achieve steady growth, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next five years.However, due to the substantial increase in the number of rollers, loaders and bulldozers in the market and the substitution effect, the growth rate is relatively low, and the average compound growth rate in the next five years will only maintain a single-digit growth.
3) the research and development of core components will be promoted to a new height: the lagging development of key basic components is the bottleneck restricting the long-term competitiveness of China's construction machinery.In the past decade, the market demand was very strong, and the enterprise focused on the rapid expansion of mainframe capacity to meet the market demand, while the development of key components and basic processes lagged behind for a long time.We believe that with the intensification of industry competition during the 12th five-year plan period, the research and development of core components is expected to be promoted to a new height, and it is expected to form a government-led, industry-led and enterprise-led joint breakthrough situation, so as to achieve a qualitative leap forward;
4) industry restructuring and merger are expected to accelerate: we believe that with the new round of capacity expansion since 2010, overcapacity may become a key factor restricting market development in the middle and later period of the 12th five-year plan.In the next five years, leading enterprises in the industry are expected to make use of their own advantages to expand product chains and market distribution through mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backward products and low-level repetitive construction by market competition mechanism, and significantly improve the industry concentration.
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