Supply pressure large alumina space is limited.
In the second half of the year, due to alumina production pressure and pessimistic export situation, alumina supply is still excessive, prices are still under pressure.From the overall supply and demand of the market, alumina, electrolytic aluminum started to match, alumina is not in short supply;Second, the new production enterprise products may be output in the fourth quarter.And after the National Day will enter the heating season, the specific policies of this year's heating season has not been formally introduced, therefore, the impact of the policy on alumina capacity is still unclear.On the other hand, alumina production elasticity is higher, lower space is more limited.When below cash cost, the high cost of production in support for a price reduction verification for many times, when the price dropped to 2500 yuan/ton, near the marginal productivity of alumina plant, after the continuous loss of cash flow production action will appear again, alumina enterprise of high volume concentration of aluminium oxide or palm, but as soon as the price rebounded, YaChan capacity will soon resume production, in addition, the cost down will also drive some enterprises have gradually restore YaChan capacity.It is expected that under the supply and demand pattern at that time, the reduction of marginal production capacity will only play a supporting role in the price, hardly to stimulate a sharp rebound, alumina prices in the fourth quarter will be in a state of shock, aluminum oxide as electrolytic aluminum * large cost, the support for electrolytic aluminum may be marginal to weak.
Electrolytic aluminum production capacity tends to increase.
The new capacity is mainly reflected in Inner Mongolia, guangxi, yunnan and other places, while the resumption of production capacity is mainly reflected in shandong weiqiao and western qinghai hydropower enterprises.Considering the influence of weiqiao in shandong and xinfa in xinjiang will continue, it is expected that the national electrolytic aluminum production will remain at a low level from September to October.It is reported that shaanxi meixin is gradually reaching the production capacity, while yun aluminum haixin and yixin are basically reaching the stage of full production capacity, and some enterprises such as zhongrun and mengtai have realized the output of electrolytic aluminum. In addition, the new production capacity has been postponed to the middle of the fourth quarter, so the new production capacity is gradually contributing to the output.In terms of resuming production, qinghai west hydropower co., ltd. has resumed production of 50,000 tons.Qinghai baihe aluminum industry co., LTD. Has begun to resume production on April 12.Weiqiao aluminum (group) 540,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum index has been published, the estimated time to resume production is nearly one to two months.The influence of shandong weiqiao and xinjiang xinfa will continue, the resumption of production time to be determined.
Electrolytic aluminum destocking speed or decline.
The demand end with the substantial repair of the Shanghai comparison value, the reversal of internal and external fundamental supply and demand expectations, and some countries to China aluminum anti-dumping measures, aluminum exports are expected to decline in the future.On the other hand, the weak macroeconomic environment leads to the lack of expected highlights in terminal demand.Overall, the trend of aluminum destocking may continue, but the destocking speed may slow down due to the acceleration of the production process.
To sum up, in the short term, the arrival of less, aluminum inventory continues to decline, aluminum spot premium relatively strong.On the other hand, aluminum production enterprises profit is higher, therefore, short hedging of aluminum futures disk price pressure.In the medium term, due to the previous supply side production led to a large contraction of the supply, aluminum ingots social inventory is expected to continue to decline.In addition, the current electrolytic aluminum plant is accelerating the process of production under the status of profit, aluminum ingot supply pressure is greater, at the same time in the high-profit mode of aluminum plant or increase hedging position, the price is also downward pressure.